ESA PADRE Analysis Results


Test case: Example DRAMA Uncontrolled Component-Centric Vehicle Re-entry

Demonstration of the PADRE spacecraft assessment mode. This analysis simulated the destructive re-entry of a 1000kg component-centric vehicle, modelled as a relatively simple structore comprising approximately 40 components. Re-entry is predicted from a circular sun-synchronous orbit of 130km altitude using the DRAMA v3.0.4 version of SESAM. Uncertainties in the initial true anomaly, atmosphere density, material properties, drag and heating coefficients are considered. A standard Monte-Carlo of between 2000 and 5000 simulations has been executed.

Status

Configuration

Total 1D Casualty Risk

Probability of compliance with 1e-4 risk: 1.00
(95% confidence interval of compliance: 0.98 - 1.00)

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 0.75 (+/- 0.0022 / 0.0022)
Standard deviation: 0.05 (+/- 0.0016 / 0.0015)
Location: 0.51
Scale: 1.7e+05
Beta A: 25
Beta B: 1.8e+07

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Total Casualty Area

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 6 (+/- 0.018 / 0.018)
Standard deviation: 0.42 (+/- 0.013 / 0.013)
Location: 4.2
Scale: 1e+04
Beta A: 23
Beta B: 1.3e+05

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Total Fragment Count

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 6 (+/- 0.033 / 0.033)
Standard deviation: 0.76 (+/- 0.024 / 0.023)
Location: 2.9
Scale: 1.4e+06
Beta A: 18
Beta B: 8.6e+06

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Total Landed Mass

Gaussian FitBeta Fit
Mean: 51 (+/- 0.16 / 0.16)
Standard deviation: 3.6 (+/- 0.12 / 0.11)
Location: 43
Scale: 15
Beta A: 0.72
Beta B: 0.71

PDF/CDF data (download)
Centile data (download)

Overall Vehicle Results

Per Fragment Results

Per Component Results


ESA PADRE 2021